https://macrotape.io/ A daily read on the money system — rates, liquidity, scarcity, credit and governance, with the numbers attached. en Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-29-credit.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-29-credit.html Credit & Stress Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The 2s10s slope went from 29.3 to 37.5 basis points in one session, the largest one-day steepening in this sample and tied with 28 September. The front end did the work: the 2yr fell 3.0 basis points to 4.67%, while the 10yr rose 5.2 to 5.045% and the 30yr rose 7.0 to 5.37%. Over the three sessions before it, high-yield OAS tightened 22.0 basis points to 3.18% (as of 27 October) and investment-grade OAS tightened 1.0, to 0.88%. So 21 of the 22 basis points were excess spread. Credit & Stress fell to +0.088 from +0.296, the weakest of the five sub-indices, while the composite held NEUTRAL at +0.348 on Rates & Policy at +1.048. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-28-scarcity.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-28-scarcity.html Scarcity Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The 10yr real yield is 2.643%, down 12.4 basis points on the week and flat across the last five daily reads inside a 1.5 basis point band. The dollar rose 0.643 and copper rose anyway, to rank 95.0 from 93.5. Gold fell 102.40 to rank 62.4, silver 3.457 to 34.3, bitcoin 275.45 to 51.5. One leg repriced against the flat hurdle and the dollar; the debasement legs did not. The composite held NEUTRAL at +0.325. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-27-plumbing.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-27-plumbing.html Plumbing Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Reserve balances were $2,962.6bn as of 21 October, down $59.5bn on the week, and the Treasury's general account built $59.3bn over the same seven days. The drain and the build are the same number. The account then added $37.3bn more in the two sessions to 23 October, to $982.5bn, which lands in Wednesday's reserve print with $0.20bn parked under it. Secured overnight money fixed 2 basis points above the administered rate on 23 October. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-26-corridor.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-26-corridor.html The Corridor Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 2s10s is 29.8 basis points on the UST marks, from 35.8 a week ago and the narrowest since 25 September. The 10yr did 11 of the work and the 2yr 5, rate volatility rose 2.2 points, high-yield OAS widened to 3.40% (22 Oct), and reserves fell $59.5bn in the week to 21 October. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-24-weekend.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-24-weekend.html Governance & Power Sat, 24 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The 30s10s spread closed 33.0bp on 19 Oct, against 67.0bp on 2 Jan — lower on only 4 of 200 sessions this year. In the same week the Treasury built $59.4bn of cash while reserve balances fell $59.5bn, and overnight money still cleared 3.88% against an administered 3.90%. Two markets, one conclusion: nothing that is being voted on is being priced. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-23-governance.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-23-governance.html Governance & Power Fri, 23 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The Treasury's general account closed at $945.2bn on 21 October, from $885.8bn a week earlier, and reserve balances fell $59.5bn over the same seven days to $2,962.6bn. The two numbers differ by $0.2bn, which is what a transfer looks like. Secured overnight money still cleared 3.88% against an administered 3.90%, the 3-month bill rallied 6bp, and reverse repo held $0.4bn (as of 22 Oct). Gold fell $143.20 and Bitcoin was flat. The price of $59bn of cash did not move. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-22-credit.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-22-credit.html Credit & Stress Thu, 22 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Tesla's third quarter put the artificial-intelligence buildout on an income statement: revenue flat at 0%, operating expenses up 39%, capital spending up 110%, operating income down 56%. Operating margin fell to 2.6%. The company covered a $4.7bn capital programme with $1.5bn of free cash flow and the rest from its own balance sheet. Unlike the hyperscalers, it has no cloud franchise paying for the build. And the same week, its chief executive floated merging the company into a rocket business - which is what a P&L looks like when it can no longer carry the story. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-21-scarcity.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-21-scarcity.html Scarcity Wed, 21 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The 10yr real yield is 2.767%, down 12.0 basis points on the week and out of the 2.2 basis point band it held for three weeks. The scarcity complex did not take the gift. Copper gave back 5.3 rank points to 93.5, gold held a higher price on a slightly lower rank, and both monetary legs slipped. The dollar fell 0.735 and helped nothing. Crude was the only leg to add rank, and the composite held NEUTRAL at +0.285. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-20-plumbing.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-20-plumbing.html Plumbing Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Reserve balances were $3,022.1bn as of 14 October, down $7.5bn on the week, and the Treasury's general account closed at $885.8bn on both ends of it - so the drain was not account building. The account then built $62.7bn in the two sessions to 16 October, to $948.5bn, its highest since 30 September. Reverse repo take-up is $0.33bn, secured overnight money sits 2 basis points through the administered rate, and that build lands in Thursday's reserve print with nothing parked under it. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-19-corridor.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-19-corridor.html The Corridor Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 2s10s closed at 35.0 basis points on the par curve, from 44.0 a week ago. The 10yr fell 15 and the 2yr fell 6, rate volatility did not fall at all, and equities sold 1.9%. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-17-weekend.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-17-weekend.html Governance & Power Sat, 17 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 One man brings a post saying inflation is here to stay. The other brings the futures ladder, which pays 10.4 per cent for this winter and 0.4 per cent for 2032, and both of them are looking at the same barrel. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-16-governance.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-16-governance.html Governance & Power Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The 30yr fell 24bp on the week to 5.43% and TLT added $2.10, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 790.21 points and high-yield OAS widened to 3.25% (as of 14 Oct). Over the same week the most senior claim in the MSTR stack printed the 100.0th percentile of its own history and the residual convertible fell 1.48. Four structures, 1 week, the same order: every claim above the loss was paid and every claim below it was charged. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-16-retail.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-16-retail.html Retail Sales Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 September retail sales printed +0.8% on the month against +0.4% expected, with the August gain revised up to +1.3%. The headline doubled consensus and ex-autos beat at +0.9% against +0.5%. The control group - the line that feeds goods consumption in the national accounts - missed at +0.1% against +0.3%, and gasoline stations supplied 71% of the dollar increase. The consumer print is the CPI story in a different coat. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-16-umich.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-16-umich.html U. Michigan Sentiment (prelim) Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The University of Michigan's preliminary October sentiment index printed 46.3 against 47.6 expected, down 1.8 points on September's 48.1 and 1.5 points above the record low of 44.8 set in May. The two inflation-expectation lines - the only part of the release with a claim on policy - both rose for a second month: year-ahead 4.7% from 4.6%, 5yr 3.5% from 3.4%. Both matched consensus. Released Friday 9 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-15-credit.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-15-credit.html Credit & Stress Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 September real hourly earnings fell 0.5% on the month and 0.7% on the year, the BLS reported on 14 October, against a 0.1% gain in nominal pay. Payrolls added 29,000. The first figure is the tax; the second is the reason it cannot be passed on as wages - and Wednesday's CPI piece named the labour market as the channel that would turn an energy shock into a price spiral. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-15-ppi.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-15-ppi.html US PPI Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 September PPI printed +1.3% on the month against +0.5% expected, and +6.3% over 12 months against +5.4%. Core, excluding food and energy, came in +0.7% against +0.3%. 1 day after CPI beat on its own terms, the index one step upstream beat harder, on all four reads. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-14-cpi.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-14-cpi.html US CPI Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 September CPI printed +3.7% year on year against +3.6% expected, with core at +2.6% against +2.5%. Both beat. Core m/m came in +0.3% against +0.2% - the number the Fed actually watches beat too, so this is not only a barrel of oil. This column's Scarcity call named a 10yr real yield above 2.95% as its invalidation; the print puts that line back in play. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-14-scarcity.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-14-scarcity.html Scarcity Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The 10yr real yield is 2.887%, a third consecutive weekly read inside a 3 basis point band, and the softest of the three. Copper added 0.1665 on the week to a percentile rank of 98.8, a new high for this sequence, and it did it with no help from the dollar. Crude added 6.19 while bitcoin held rank 57.7 and ether's rank slipped to 30.7. The composite held NEUTRAL. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-13-plumbing.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-13-plumbing.html Plumbing Tue, 13 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Reserve balances rose $81.6bn in the week to 7 October, to $3,029.7bn - a second consecutive weekly add. The Treasury's general account drained $98.2bn over the same window and then rebuilt $16.3bn off its 2 October low, reverse repo take-up is $0.3bn, and secured overnight money sits 3 basis points through the administered rate with no stress priced. https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-12-corridor.html https://macrotape.io/posts/2026-10-12-corridor.html The Corridor Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 2s10s closed at 44.4 basis points, against 44.7 a week ago. The spread widened to 50.7 by 8 October and gave all of it back, and the composite lost its TIGHTENING tag.