What printed, against what was expected, and what it means for the trade.
Retail Sales Doubled Consensus. Gasoline Wrote the Beat.
September retail sales printed +0.8% on the month against +0.4% expected, with the August gain revised up to +1.3%. The headline doubled consensus and ex-autos beat at +0.9% against +0.5%. The control group - the line that feeds goods consumption in the national accounts - missed at +0.1% against +0.3%, and gasoline stations supplied 71% of the dollar increase. The consumer print is the CPI story in a different coat.
Sentiment Missed Consensus. Inflation Expectations Rose Again.
The University of Michigan's preliminary October sentiment index printed 46.3 against 47.6 expected, down 1.8 points on September's 48.1 and 1.5 points above the record low of 44.8 set in May. The two inflation-expectation lines - the only part of the release with a claim on policy - both rose for a second month: year-ahead 4.7% from 4.6%, 5yr 3.5% from 3.4%. Both matched consensus. Released Friday 9 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
PPI Ran Hotter Than CPI. The Pipeline Caught Up.
September PPI printed +1.3% on the month against +0.5% expected, and +6.3% over 12 months against +5.4%. Core, excluding food and energy, came in +0.7% against +0.3%. 1 day after CPI beat on its own terms, the index one step upstream beat harder, on all four reads.
CPI Ran Hot. The Real-Yield Band Is the Test.
September CPI printed +3.7% year on year against +3.6% expected, with core at +2.6% against +2.5%. Both beat. Core m/m came in +0.3% against +0.2% - the number the Fed actually watches beat too, so this is not only a barrel of oil. This column's Scarcity call named a 10yr real yield above 2.95% as its invalidation; the print puts that line back in play.