RETURN TO RISK-ON
A regime monitor, not a forecast. Each row is a dated input with the condition a risk-on turn actually requires; the row is GREEN when the condition holds today and WAIT when it does not. The count above the rail is how many are lit. When the real 10-year is back under 1.50%, the term premium is paid, and the dollar has stopped rising, the regime has turned. Until then the page says so.
INDICATORS4/8 GREEN
WAIT10Y REAL YIELD2.64%
target < 1.50 · The master variable. Falling or negative real yields are the risk-on fuel.FRED DFII10
GREEN10Y BREAKEVEN2.38%
target rising · Inflation compensation. Requires the real/breakeven split, not just lower yields.FRED T10YIE
WAIT10Y TERM PREMIUM0.94%
target > 1.00 · Compensation for duration risk. Steeper means the market is repricing supply.FRED THREEFYTP10
WAITDXY102.04
target topping · A rising dollar drains global liquidity. It has to roll over first.ICE DXY
GREEN2S10S38bp
target > 0 · Positive slope. Bull-steepening is the friendly version of the widen.Treasury curve
GREENHY OAS3.18%
target < 4.50 · Credit is calm. Stress here withdraws the bid before anything else moves.FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
GREENCOPPER/GOLD0.00165
target rising · Growth-versus-haven ratio. It tends to lead the regime turn.futures proxy
WAITBTC 30D-4.14%
target > 0 · The asset being forecast. Not a cause of the regime, only an expression.spot BTC
TRANSMISSION12 MONTHS · DAILY
10Y real yield10Y breakevenbroad $ index (right axis)green-light threshold
WEEKLY ANALYSIS
- 2026-10-29ANALYSISThe Bond Rallied 15 Basis Points. The Mortgage Took 8.
- 2026-10-29THURSDAYThe Curve Steepened 8.2 Basis Points. Credit Had Already Unwound 22.
- 2026-10-28ANALYSISDiesel Is at the 93rd Percentile and the Federal Lever Is 315,000 Barrels
- 2026-10-28ANALYSISStrategy Trades at 0.79x Its Bitcoin. The 1.14x Print Is Wrong.
- 2026-10-28WEDNESDAYThe Hurdle Went Flat. Copper Repriced. Gold and Silver Did Not.
- 2026-10-27TUESDAYReserves Fell $59.5bn. The Chequebook Built $59.3bn. The Parking Lot Holds $0.20bn.
- 2026-10-26ANALYSISThe Curve Peaks at 20 Years, and the Dealer Is the Buyer There
- 2026-10-26MONDAYThe Corridor Narrowed 6 Basis Points. Credit Widened 9.
- 2026-10-24ANALYSISForward Curve #1: The Week Nothing Was Charged For
- 2026-10-24WEEKENDYour Vote Doesn't Price. The Auction Calendar Does.
Regime read from the same snapshot as the terminal: composite 0.348 NEUTRAL (dominant: Rates & Policy). Sources: FRED DFII10, T10YIE, THREEFYTP10, DTWEXBGS, BAMLH0A0HYM2; site data/latest.json.