The hard-asset trade. BTC, gold, copper/gold, the BTC-treasury complex.
The Hurdle Went Flat. Copper Repriced. Gold and Silver Did Not.
The 10yr real yield is 2.643%, down 12.4 basis points on the week and flat across the last five daily reads inside a 1.5 basis point band. The dollar rose 0.643 and copper rose anyway, to rank 95.0 from 93.5. Gold fell 102.40 to rank 62.4, silver 3.457 to 34.3, bitcoin 275.45 to 51.5. One leg repriced against the flat hurdle and the dollar; the debasement legs did not. The composite held NEUTRAL at +0.325.
The Hurdle Fell 12 Basis Points. Nothing Repriced.
The 10yr real yield is 2.767%, down 12.0 basis points on the week and out of the 2.2 basis point band it held for three weeks. The scarcity complex did not take the gift. Copper gave back 5.3 rank points to 93.5, gold held a higher price on a slightly lower rank, and both monetary legs slipped. The dollar fell 0.735 and helped nothing. Crude was the only leg to add rank, and the composite held NEUTRAL at +0.285.
The Hurdle Held. Copper Broke to a Rank High.
The 10yr real yield is 2.887%, a third consecutive weekly read inside a 3 basis point band, and the softest of the three. Copper added 0.1665 on the week to a percentile rank of 98.8, a new high for this sequence, and it did it with no help from the dollar. Crude added 6.19 while bitcoin held rank 57.7 and ether's rank slipped to 30.7. The composite held NEUTRAL.
The Hurdle Held. The Scarcity Complex Paid.
The 10yr real yield is 2.909%, 1 basis point below last week's sequence high. Copper added 0.0605 on the week and bitcoin gave back 0.67%. Against a discount rate that stopped climbing, the hard-asset complex is no longer being repriced - it is being ranked.
Scarcity Held the Volume. It Lost the Price.
Copper is up on the day and down on the week. Bitcoin closed last Wednesday at 86,512.60 and is 4.05% below it. Against the highest real yield of this sequence, the scarcity complex is holding its turnover and paying the bill in price.
The Scarce Asset Is Not the Monetary One
Copper is at the top of its range and gold is the soft leg of the complex. The scarcity bid has moved to the metals with a physical use.
The Nominal Ceiling Is Gone
Real yields are at the post-2008 high. The last line of defence for a scarce asset is now a falling price.
The Real Yield Is the Whole Trade
Bitcoin does not trade against the dollar. It trades against the real rate.