REGIME MONITOR
NEUTRAL
COMPOSITE STRESS SCORE
+0.01
▲ +0.01
positive = stress
DOMINANT SUB-INDEX
Rates & Policy
largest absolute contribution
KEY LEVELS
US 2Y
4.560
▲ +0.13
US 10Y
4.950
▲ +0.12
US 30Y
5.370
▲ +0.09
VIX
17.94
▲ +1.48
DXY
99.06
▲ +0.29
BTC
77,140
▼ -1,119.78
CURVE
| TENOR | LEVEL | 1D Δ | Z (3Y) | RANGE %ILE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 4.560 | +0.130 | +1.26 | 71 |
| 5Y | 4.750 | +0.140 | +2.42 | 100 |
| 10Y | 4.950 | +0.120 | +2.84 | 100 |
| 30Y | 5.370 | +0.090 | +2.38 | 100 |
CROSS-ASSET
| INSTRUMENT | LAST | 1D Δ | 1W Δ | Z (3Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.94 | +1.48 | +3.62 | +0.13 |
| MOVE | 76.74 | +0.00 | -2.97 | -0.85 |
| DXY | 99.06 | +0.29 | -0.49 | -0.89 |
| USD/JPY | 154.34 | +0.86 | -4.58 | +0.39 |
| GOLD | 4,363 | -53 | -4 | +1.20 |
| COPPER | 6.520 | -0.283 | +0.019 | +2.00 |
| WTI | 102.62 | +6.57 | +11.61 | +2.56 |
| BTC | 77,140 | -1,120 | -2,684 | +0.04 |
| ETH | 2,462 | -5 | -19 | -0.35 |
| MSTR | 128.56 | -4.14 | +5.37 | -0.60 |
PLUMBING & ANCHORS
| SERIES | VALUE |
|---|---|
| SOFR (NY Fed) | 3.64% |
| EFFR (NY Fed) | 3.63% |
| IORB | 3.65% |
| SOFR − IORB | -0.010 bp |
| Reserve balances | 2,894 bn |
| Treasury General Account | 844 bn |
| Overnight RRP | 5 bn |
| 2s10s slope | 38.4 bp |
| 10Y real yield | 2.57% |
| 10Y breakeven | 2.37% |
| HY OAS | 271.00% |
| IG OAS | — |
| Initial claims | — |
| Continuing claims | — |
| Core CPI YoY | — |
| Copper/Gold | 0.00149 |
| BTC 30d | +21.4% |
| BTC 5d | -3.4% |
LATEST POSTS
The Crack Is Not in Spreads Yet
Credit is calm while rates are not. That divergence is the position.
The Real Yield Is the Whole Trade
Bitcoin does not trade against the dollar. It trades against the real rate.
Reserves Are Fine. The Composition Is Not.
Nobody is short dollars. Somebody is short duration.
The Corridor Holds. The Path Doesn't.
The front end is doing the talking now, and it is not a supply story.