What this is

A daily read on the money system, in five lenses, published on a weekday rotation.

The rotation

• Monday — The Corridor. The price of money. Fed path, SOFR curve, auctions, real rates.
• Tuesday — Plumbing. The quantity of money. Reserves, TGA, RRP, SOFR–IORB, funding at the margin.
• Wednesday — Scarcity. The hard-asset trade. BTC, gold, copper/gold, energy, BTC-treasury complex.
• Thursday — Credit & Stress. Where the crack shows first. HY/IG OAS, MOVE, bank funding.
• Friday — Governance & Power. Fiscal dominance, supply, central-bank independence, reserve status.

Three lenses, applied every day

Money, scarcity and governance are not themes — they are measurement lenses applied to whatever the day's subject is. An auction is a scarcity event. A credit spread is a governance tell.

The composite

Every series is z-scored against a rolling three-year history and oriented so that positive means stress. The z-scores roll into five sub-indices — Rates & Policy, Liquidity, Credit & Stress, Growth & Inflation, Scarcity — which average into one headline score and a regime label.

Weights are equal within each sub-index. This is a transparency choice, not a claim of optimality. A composite that cannot be explained in a paragraph cannot be trusted when it disagrees with you.

Regime bands

• Below −1.0 — Risk-on / liquid
• −1.0 to −0.35 — Easing
• −0.35 to +0.35 — Neutral
• +0.35 to +1.0 — Tightening
• Above +1.0 — Stress / defensive

Accountability

Every post closes with one call and the level that invalidates it. The archive is the track record.

Sources

US Treasury daily yield curve (home.treasury.gov), NY Fed reference rates, Treasury Fiscal Data (TGA), FRED (reserves, RRP, OAS, claims, CPI, breakevens) and Yahoo Finance (market prices). Data is fetched once daily and stored as a snapshot.