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The Crack Is Not in Spreads Yet
Credit is calm while rates are not. That divergence is the position.
The Real Yield Is the Whole Trade
Bitcoin does not trade against the dollar. It trades against the real rate.
Reserves Are Fine. The Composition Is Not.
Nobody is short dollars. Somebody is short duration.
The Corridor Holds. The Path Doesn't.
The front end is doing the talking now, and it is not a supply story.